# Integrated Models, Scenarios and Dynamics of Climate, Land Use and Common Birds for France: Dynamic Maps

This page contains the dynamic maps associated to the following research paper:

Ay Jean-Sauveur, Raja Chakir, Luc Doyen, Frédéric Jiguet, and Paul Leadley. Integrated models, scenarios and dynamics of climate, land use and common birds. Revision: Climatic Change, March 2013. [ bib ]

## 1 Presentation

### 1.1 Framework

We present here only a brief overview of the methods used in this research, a more complete picture can be found in the last working paper version and the associated online ressources.

The modeling framework is structured in 3 blocks:

Species Distribution Models
relating climate, land use and environmental variables (elevation, slope, etc.) to common birds abundances. They are calibrated on FBBS survey 2001–2011 through negative binomial Generalized Additive Models.
Land Use Change Econometric Models
relating climate, returns from land (in euros) and environmental variables (slope, land quality, etc.) to land use choices. They are calibrated on TERUTI survey 1993–2003 through multinomial models.
Ricardian Models
relating climate and environmental variables (slope, geographical coordinates, etc.) to the economic returns from land (approximated by land prices). They are calibrated on land price data from the French Ministry of Agriculture 1990–2005 through gaussian Generalized Additive Models.

Because some of our data have a restricted access, not all our work is reproducible from this page. From here, only the output data frames from our simulations are available. This suffices nevertheless to reproduce all the Figures of the paper and to produce some dynamic maps that reflect more precisely than the published paper the dynamic content of our results.

### 1.2 Scenarios

As illustrated by the following Figure, we simulate 5 different scenarios in order to disentangle the respective effects of the integrated modeling blocks.

In the Figure, CC counts for climate change, SDM for species distribution models, RIC for Ricardian models of returns from land, LU for land use and CP for conservation payments. Simulations of bird population by SDM pursue the observed 2001–2009 trends and integrate climate change in all scenarios. In scenario S0, land use is constant. In scenario S1, the model of LUC is used to extrapolate the temporal trends to obtain a kind of business-as-usual scenario. In scenario S2, the effects of climate change on the returns from land and, consequently, on LUC are taken into account. Scenario S3 and S4 are respectively equivalent to S1 and S2 with a conservation policy providing uniform payments for pastures.

### 1.3 Content

The rest of this file first presents the Land Use Changes (section 2) and the Bird Abundances (section 3) associated to each scenario. Each section contains the data from simulations (in compressed .Rda format for the R software). Sections 4 and 5 are the Acknowledgements and some Additional Material required to run the R codes (they are tangled in myFunctions.R and are loaded in the workspace with source("myFunctions.R")) that allow to produce the dynamic maps. Moreover, this HTML page is exported from an Org Mode file than can be opened with GNU Emacs and is also available as a .pdf file for easy print. More details on this work flow is available at the following webpage. If you see any errors or strange results, you can contact me at jsay_dot_site_at_gmail_dot_com.

## 2 Land Use Changes

### 2.1 Scenario S0

Land use is constant in this scenario, only birds are impacted by climate change, see section 1.2 for a description of scenarios.

### 2.2 Scenario S1

This scenario is a kind of "business as usual" scenario in terms of land use changes. The dynamics 1990–2005 of returns from land is extrapolated to 2053. In particular, it does not integrate the climate change effects on returns.

You can download the data from this scenario simulation here. See Section 5.1 for the functions.

This scenario presents an increase in annual crops, forests and urban area and a decrease in pastures and perennial crops. The following Table contains the links to the R Codes and the Animations 2003–2053 at the national scale.

Land Use Changes according to scenario S1
Land Use Variations 2003–2053 R Code Animation

More interpretations to come.

### 2.3 Scenario S2

This scenario integrates climate-induced land use changes. The dynamics 1990–2005 of returns from land are modeled through climate variables, and the IPCC projection A1B is used to estimate the future returns from land. Then, the econometric model of land use allows to establish the consequences in terms of land use changes.

You can download the data from this scenario simulation here. See Section 5.1 for the functions.

This scenario presents an increase in annual crops, perennial crops, forests and urban area. The pastures are proven to potentially suffer from climate change, with a strong decrease of the acreages. The following Table contains the links to the R Codes and the Animations 2003–2053 at the national scale.

Land Use Changes according to scenario S2
Land Use Variations 2003–2053 R Code Animation

More interpretations to come.

### 2.4 Scenario S3

This scenario corresponds to S1 coupled with a payment of € 200 per hectare for pastures.

You can download the data from this scenario simulation here. See Section 5.1 for the functions.

This scenario presents an increase in pastures and urban area and a decrease in annual crops, perennial crops and forests. For this scenario, the animations of the following Table are not the absolute land use changes but the land use change relatively to S1, to show the net effect of the policy of payments for pastures.

Land Use Changes from scenario S3 relatively to S1
Land Use Variations 2003–2053 R Code Animation

More interpretations to come.

### 2.5 Scenario S4

This scenario corresponds to S2 coupled with a payment of € 200 per hectare for pastures.

You can download the data from this scenario simulation here. See Section 5.1 for the functions.

This scenario presents an increase in annual crops, perennial crops and urban area and a decrease in pastures and forests. With climate-induced land use changes, the payments are not sufficient to reverse the decreasing trend of pastures. For this scenario, the animations of the following Table are not the absolute land use changes but the land use change relatively to S2, to show the net effect of the policy of payments for pastures.

Land Use Changes according to scenario S4 relatively to scenario S2
Land Use Variations 2003–2053 R Code Animation

More interpretations to come.

## 3 Bird Abundances

### 3.1 Scenario S0

This scenario is with constant land use, it shows the direct response of birds' distributions from the climate projections IPCC A1B.

Download the data for the simulation here. The dynamic map 2003–2053 for the aggregate bird index as presented in the working paper (equation 9) is here with the corresponding R code.

Species names are available from this .csv file from which we build the following tabular containing the animations 2003–2053 of bird abundances from all the species studied in this research. The R Code using to generate the simulations from the raw data is here. The Table is simply obtained from the following R script.

NDO <- read.csv("Data/NomsDoizos.csv")
(OIZO <- data.frame("CODE"= NDO$SPEC, "French"= NDO$NOM, "English"= NDO$Anglais, "Latin"= paste("/",NDO$ESP1," ",NDO$ESP2,"/",sep= ""), "Animation"= paste("[[./output/", NDO$SPEC, "S0/",
NDO$SPEC,"S0.html][Click here]]",sep="")))  Links to the animations 2003–2053 for scenario S0 and each bird species CODE French English Latin Animation ALAARV Alouette des champs Sky Lark Alauda arvensis Click here ALERUF Perdrix rouge Red-legged Partridge Alectoris rufa Click here ANTPRA Pipit farlouse Meadow Pipit Anthus pratensis Click here APUAPU Martinet noir Common Swift Apus apus Click here BUTBUT Buse variable Common Buzzard Buteo buteo Click here CARCAN Linotte mélodieuse Linnet Carduelis cannabina Click here CARCAR Chardonneret élégant Goldfinch Carduelis carduelis Click here CARCHL Verdier d'Europe Greenfinch Chloris chloris Click here CERBRA Grimpereau des jardins Short-toed Treecreeper Certhia brachydactyla Click here CERFAM Grimpereau des bois Eurasian Treecreeper Certhia familiaris Click here COCCOC Grosbec casse-noyaux Hawfinch Coccothraustes coccothraustes Click here COLPAL Pigeon ramier Wood Pigeon Columba palumbus Click here CORCOR Corneille noire Carrion Crow Corvus corone Click here CORFRU Corbeau freux Rook Corvus frugilegus Click here CORMON Choucas des tours Western Jackdaw Coloeus monedula Click here COTCOT Caille des blés Common Quail Coturnix coturnix Click here CUCCAN Coucou gris Common Cuckoo Cuculus canorus Click here DELURB Hirondelle de fenêtre House Martin Delichon urbicum Click here DENMAJ Pic épeiche Great Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos major Click here DENMED Pic mar Middle Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos medius Click here DRYMAR Pic noir Black Woodpecker Dryocopus martius Click here EMBCIR Bruant zizi Cirl Bunting Emberiza cirlus Click here EMBCIT Bruant jaune Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella Click here ERIRUB Rouge-gorge familier Robin Erithacus rubecula Click here FALTIN Faucon crécerelle Common Kestrel Falco tinnunculus Click here FRICOE Pinson des arbres Common Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs Click here GARGLA Geai des chênes Eurasian Jay Garrulus glandarius Click here HIPPOL Hypolaïs polyglotte Melodious Warbler Hippolais polyglotta Click here HIRRUS Hirondelle rustique Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica Click here LANCOL Pie-grièche écorcheur Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio Click here LULARB Alouette lulu Wood Lark Lullula arborea Click here LUSMEG Rossignol philomèle Rufous Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos Click here MILCAL Bruant proyer Corn Bunting Emberiza calandra Click here MOTFLA Bergeronnette printanière Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava Click here ORIORI Loriot d'Europe Golden Oriole Oriolus oriolus Click here PARATE Mésange noire Coal Tit Periparus ater Click here PARCAE Mésange bleue Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus Click here PARCRI Mésange huppée Crested Tit Lophophanes cristatus Click here PARMAJ Mésange charbonnière Great Tit Parus major Click here PARMON Mésange boréale Willow Tit Parus montanus Click here PARPAL Mésange nonnette Marsh Tit Poecile palustris Click here PASDOM Moineau domestique House Sparrow Passer domesticus Click here PASMON Moineau friquet Tree Sparrow Passer montanus Click here PERPER Perdrix grise Grey Partridge Perdix perdix Click here PHOOCH Rougequeue noir Black Redstart Phoenicurus ochruros Click here PHOPHO Rougequeue à front blanc Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus Click here PHYBON Pouillot de Bonelli Western Bonelli's Warbler Phylloscopus bonelli Click here PHYCOL Pouillot véloce Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita Click here PHYSIB Pouillot siffleur Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix Click here PHYTRO Pouillot fitis Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus Click here PICCAN Pic cendré Grey-headed Woodpecker Picus canus Click here PICPIC Pie bavarde Magpie Pica pica Click here PICVIR Pic vert Green Woodpecker Picus viridis Click here PRUMOD Accenteur mouchet Dunnock Prunella modularis Click here PYRPYR Bouvreuil pivoine Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula Click here REGIGN Roitelet triple-bandeau Firecrest Regulus ignicapilla Click here REGREG Roitelet huppé Goldcrest Regulus regulus Click here SAXRUB Tarier des prés Whinchat Saxicola rubetra Click here SAXTOR Tarier pâtre Common Stonechat Saxicola rubicola Click here SERSER Serin cini European Serin Serinus serinus Click here SITEUR Sittelle torchepot Eurasian Nuthatch Sitta europaea Click here STRDEC Tourterelle turque Collared Dove Streptopelia decaocto Click here SYLATR Fauvette à tête noire Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla Click here SYLCOM Fauvette grisette Common Whitethroat Sylvia communis Click here SYLMEL Fauvette mélanocéphale Sardinian Warbler Sylvia melanocephala Click here TROTRO Troglodyte mignon Wren Troglodytes troglodytes Click here TURMER Merle noir Blackbird Turdus merula Click here TURPHI Grive musicienne Song Thrush Turdus philomelos Click here TURVIS Grive draine Mistle Thrush Turdus viscivorus Click here UPUEPO Huppe fasciée Hoopoe Upupa epops Click here VANVAN Vanneau huppé Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Click here More interpretations to come. ### 3.2 Scenario S1 This scenario corresponds to a "business-as-usual" scenario for land use, with climate effects on birds as in S0. Download the data for the simulation here. The dynamic map 2003–2053 for the aggregate bird index as presented in the working paper (equation 9) is here with the corresponding R code. Species names are available from this .csv file from which we build the following tabular containing the animations 2003–2053 of bird abundances from all the species studied in this research. The R Code using to generate the simulations from the raw data is here. The Table is simply obtained from the following R script. Outliers <- c("ALAARV", "APUAPU") NDO <- subset(read.csv("Data/NomsDoizos.csv"), !SPEC %in% Outliers) (OIZO <- data.frame("CODE"= NDO$SPEC, "French"= NDO$NOM, "English"= NDO$Anglais,
"Latin"= paste("/", NDO$ESP1, " ", NDO$ESP2, "/", sep= ""),
"Animation"= paste("[[./output/", NDO$SPEC, "S1/", NDO$SPEC,"S1.html][Click here]]", sep= "")))

Links to the animations 2003–2053 for scenario S1 and each bird species
CODE French English Latin Animation

More interpretations to come.

### 3.3 Scenario S2

This scenario corresponds to a climate-induced scenario for land use, with climate effects on birds as in S0.

Download the data for the simulation here. The dynamic map 2003–2053 for the aggregate bird index as presented in the working paper (equation 9) is here with the corresponding R code. Some explanations.

Species names are available from this .csv file from which we build the following tabular containing the animations 2003–2053 of bird abundances from all the species studied in this research. The R Code using to generate the simulations from the raw data is here. The Table is simply obtained from the following R script.

Outliers <- c("ALAARV", "APUAPU", "MOTFLA", "SYLMEL")
NDO <- subset(read.csv("Data/NomsDoizos.csv"), !SPEC %in% Outliers)
(OIZO <- data.frame("CODE"= NDO$SPEC, "French"= NDO$NOM, "English"= NDO$Anglais, "Latin"= paste("/", NDO$ESP1, " ", NDO$ESP2, "/", sep= ""), "Animation"= paste("[[./output/", NDO$SPEC, "S2/",
NDO$SPEC,"S2.html][Click here]]", sep= "")))  Links to the animations 2003–2053 for scenario S2 and each bird species CODE French English Latin Animation ALERUF Perdrix rouge Red-legged Partridge Alectoris rufa Click here ANTPRA Pipit farlouse Meadow Pipit Anthus pratensis Click here BUTBUT Buse variable Common Buzzard Buteo buteo Click here CARCAN Linotte mélodieuse Linnet Carduelis cannabina Click here CARCAR Chardonneret élégant Goldfinch Carduelis carduelis Click here CARCHL Verdier d'Europe Greenfinch Chloris chloris Click here CERBRA Grimpereau des jardins Short-toed Treecreeper Certhia brachydactyla Click here CERFAM Grimpereau des bois Eurasian Treecreeper Certhia familiaris Click here COCCOC Grosbec casse-noyaux Hawfinch Coccothraustes coccothraustes Click here COLPAL Pigeon ramier Wood Pigeon Columba palumbus Click here CORCOR Corneille noire Carrion Crow Corvus corone Click here CORFRU Corbeau freux Rook Corvus frugilegus Click here CORMON Choucas des tours Western Jackdaw Coloeus monedula Click here COTCOT Caille des blés Common Quail Coturnix coturnix Click here CUCCAN Coucou gris Common Cuckoo Cuculus canorus Click here DELURB Hirondelle de fenêtre House Martin Delichon urbicum Click here DENMAJ Pic épeiche Great Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos major Click here DENMED Pic mar Middle Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos medius Click here DRYMAR Pic noir Black Woodpecker Dryocopus martius Click here EMBCIR Bruant zizi Cirl Bunting Emberiza cirlus Click here EMBCIT Bruant jaune Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella Click here ERIRUB Rouge-gorge familier Robin Erithacus rubecula Click here FALTIN Faucon crécerelle Common Kestrel Falco tinnunculus Click here FRICOE Pinson des arbres Common Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs Click here GARGLA Geai des chênes Eurasian Jay Garrulus glandarius Click here HIPPOL Hypolaïs polyglotte Melodious Warbler Hippolais polyglotta Click here HIRRUS Hirondelle rustique Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica Click here LANCOL Pie-grièche écorcheur Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio Click here LULARB Alouette lulu Wood Lark Lullula arborea Click here LUSMEG Rossignol philomèle Rufous Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos Click here MILCAL Bruant proyer Corn Bunting Emberiza calandra Click here ORIORI Loriot d'Europe Golden Oriole Oriolus oriolus Click here PARATE Mésange noire Coal Tit Periparus ater Click here PARCAE Mésange bleue Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus Click here PARCRI Mésange huppée Crested Tit Lophophanes cristatus Click here PARMAJ Mésange charbonnière Great Tit Parus major Click here PARMON Mésange boréale Willow Tit Parus montanus Click here PARPAL Mésange nonnette Marsh Tit Poecile palustris Click here PASDOM Moineau domestique House Sparrow Passer domesticus Click here PASMON Moineau friquet Tree Sparrow Passer montanus Click here PERPER Perdrix grise Grey Partridge Perdix perdix Click here PHOOCH Rougequeue noir Black Redstart Phoenicurus ochruros Click here PHOPHO Rougequeue à front blanc Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus Click here PHYBON Pouillot de Bonelli Western Bonelli's Warbler Phylloscopus bonelli Click here PHYCOL Pouillot véloce Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita Click here PHYSIB Pouillot siffleur Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix Click here PHYTRO Pouillot fitis Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus Click here PICCAN Pic cendré Grey-headed Woodpecker Picus canus Click here PICPIC Pie bavarde Magpie Pica pica Click here PICVIR Pic vert Green Woodpecker Picus viridis Click here PRUMOD Accenteur mouchet Dunnock Prunella modularis Click here PYRPYR Bouvreuil pivoine Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula Click here REGIGN Roitelet triple-bandeau Firecrest Regulus ignicapilla Click here REGREG Roitelet huppé Goldcrest Regulus regulus Click here SAXRUB Tarier des prés Whinchat Saxicola rubetra Click here SAXTOR Tarier pâtre Common Stonechat Saxicola rubicola Click here SERSER Serin cini European Serin Serinus serinus Click here SITEUR Sittelle torchepot Eurasian Nuthatch Sitta europaea Click here STRDEC Tourterelle turque Collared Dove Streptopelia decaocto Click here SYLATR Fauvette à tête noire Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla Click here SYLCOM Fauvette grisette Common Whitethroat Sylvia communis Click here TROTRO Troglodyte mignon Wren Troglodytes troglodytes Click here TURMER Merle noir Blackbird Turdus merula Click here TURPHI Grive musicienne Song Thrush Turdus philomelos Click here TURVIS Grive draine Mistle Thrush Turdus viscivorus Click here UPUEPO Huppe fasciée Hoopoe Upupa epops Click here VANVAN Vanneau huppé Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Click here More interpretations to come. ### 3.4 Scenario S3 Scenario S1 coupled with a payment of € 200 per hectare for pastures, with climate effects on birds as in S0. Download the data for the simulation here. The dynamic map 2003–2053 for the aggregate bird index as presented in the working paper (equation 9) is here with the corresponding R code. Some explanations. Species names are available from this .csv file from which we build the following tabular containing the animations 2003–2053 of bird abundances from all the species studied in this research. The R Code using to generate the simulations from the raw data is here. The Table is simply obtained from the following R script. Outliers <- c("ALAARV", "APUAPU", "SYLMEL") NDO <- subset(read.csv("Data/NomsDoizos.csv"), !SPEC %in% Outliers) (OIZO <- data.frame("CODE"= NDO$SPEC, "French"= NDO$NOM, "English"= NDO$Anglais,
"Latin"= paste("/", NDO$ESP1, " ", NDO$ESP2, "/", sep= ""),
"Animation"= paste("[[./output/", NDO$SPEC, "S3/", NDO$SPEC,"S3.html][Click here]]", sep= "")))

Links to the animations 2003–2053 for scenario S3 and each bird species
CODE French English Latin Animation

More interpretations to come.

### 3.5 Scenario S4

Scenario S2 coupled with a payment of € 200 per hectare for pastures, with climate effects on birds as in S0.

Download the data for the simulation here. The dynamic map 2003–2053 for the aggregate bird index as presented in the working paper (equation 9) is here with the corresponding R code. Some explanations.

Species names are available from this .csv file from which we build the following tabular containing the animations 2003–2053 of bird abundances from all the species studied in this research. The R Code using to generate the simulations from the raw data is here. The Table is simply obtained from the following R script.

Outliers <- c("ALAARV", "APUAPU", "SYLMEL")
NDO <- subset(read.csv("Data/NomsDoizos.csv"), !SPEC %in% Outliers)
(OIZO <- data.frame("CODE"= NDO$SPEC, "French"= NDO$NOM, "English"= NDO$Anglais, "Latin"= paste("/", NDO$ESP1, " ", NDO$ESP2, "/", sep= ""), "Animation"= paste("[[./output/", NDO$SPEC, "S4/",
NDO$SPEC,"S4.html][Click here]]", sep= "")))  Links to the animations 2003–2053 for scenario S4 and each bird species CODE French English Latin Animation ALERUF Perdrix rouge Red-legged Partridge Alectoris rufa Click here ANTPRA Pipit farlouse Meadow Pipit Anthus pratensis Click here BUTBUT Buse variable Common Buzzard Buteo buteo Click here CARCAN Linotte mélodieuse Linnet Carduelis cannabina Click here CARCAR Chardonneret élégant Goldfinch Carduelis carduelis Click here CARCHL Verdier d'Europe Greenfinch Chloris chloris Click here CERBRA Grimpereau des jardins Short-toed Treecreeper Certhia brachydactyla Click here CERFAM Grimpereau des bois Eurasian Treecreeper Certhia familiaris Click here COCCOC Grosbec casse-noyaux Hawfinch Coccothraustes coccothraustes Click here COLPAL Pigeon ramier Wood Pigeon Columba palumbus Click here CORCOR Corneille noire Carrion Crow Corvus corone Click here CORFRU Corbeau freux Rook Corvus frugilegus Click here CORMON Choucas des tours Western Jackdaw Coloeus monedula Click here COTCOT Caille des blés Common Quail Coturnix coturnix Click here CUCCAN Coucou gris Common Cuckoo Cuculus canorus Click here DELURB Hirondelle de fenêtre House Martin Delichon urbicum Click here DENMAJ Pic épeiche Great Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos major Click here DENMED Pic mar Middle Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos medius Click here DRYMAR Pic noir Black Woodpecker Dryocopus martius Click here EMBCIR Bruant zizi Cirl Bunting Emberiza cirlus Click here EMBCIT Bruant jaune Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella Click here ERIRUB Rouge-gorge familier Robin Erithacus rubecula Click here FALTIN Faucon crécerelle Common Kestrel Falco tinnunculus Click here FRICOE Pinson des arbres Common Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs Click here GARGLA Geai des chênes Eurasian Jay Garrulus glandarius Click here HIPPOL Hypolaïs polyglotte Melodious Warbler Hippolais polyglotta Click here HIRRUS Hirondelle rustique Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica Click here LANCOL Pie-grièche écorcheur Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio Click here LULARB Alouette lulu Wood Lark Lullula arborea Click here LUSMEG Rossignol philomèle Rufous Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos Click here MILCAL Bruant proyer Corn Bunting Emberiza calandra Click here MOTFLA Bergeronnette printanière Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava Click here ORIORI Loriot d'Europe Golden Oriole Oriolus oriolus Click here PARATE Mésange noire Coal Tit Periparus ater Click here PARCAE Mésange bleue Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus Click here PARCRI Mésange huppée Crested Tit Lophophanes cristatus Click here PARMAJ Mésange charbonnière Great Tit Parus major Click here PARMON Mésange boréale Willow Tit Parus montanus Click here PARPAL Mésange nonnette Marsh Tit Poecile palustris Click here PASDOM Moineau domestique House Sparrow Passer domesticus Click here PASMON Moineau friquet Tree Sparrow Passer montanus Click here PERPER Perdrix grise Grey Partridge Perdix perdix Click here PHOOCH Rougequeue noir Black Redstart Phoenicurus ochruros Click here PHOPHO Rougequeue à front blanc Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus Click here PHYBON Pouillot de Bonelli Western Bonelli's Warbler Phylloscopus bonelli Click here PHYCOL Pouillot véloce Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita Click here PHYSIB Pouillot siffleur Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix Click here PHYTRO Pouillot fitis Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus Click here PICCAN Pic cendré Grey-headed Woodpecker Picus canus Click here PICPIC Pie bavarde Magpie Pica pica Click here PICVIR Pic vert Green Woodpecker Picus viridis Click here PRUMOD Accenteur mouchet Dunnock Prunella modularis Click here PYRPYR Bouvreuil pivoine Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula Click here REGIGN Roitelet triple-bandeau Firecrest Regulus ignicapilla Click here REGREG Roitelet huppé Goldcrest Regulus regulus Click here SAXRUB Tarier des prés Whinchat Saxicola rubetra Click here SAXTOR Tarier pâtre Common Stonechat Saxicola rubicola Click here SERSER Serin cini European Serin Serinus serinus Click here SITEUR Sittelle torchepot Eurasian Nuthatch Sitta europaea Click here STRDEC Tourterelle turque Collared Dove Streptopelia decaocto Click here SYLATR Fauvette à tête noire Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla Click here SYLCOM Fauvette grisette Common Whitethroat Sylvia communis Click here TROTRO Troglodyte mignon Wren Troglodytes troglodytes Click here TURMER Merle noir Blackbird Turdus merula Click here TURPHI Grive musicienne Song Thrush Turdus philomelos Click here TURVIS Grive draine Mistle Thrush Turdus viscivorus Click here UPUEPO Huppe fasciée Hoopoe Upupa epops Click here VANVAN Vanneau huppé Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Click here More interpretations to come. ## 4 Acknowledgements This research has been founded by the FRB (Fondation de Recherche sur la Biodiversité) and GDF–SUEZ through the MOBILIS project. R. Chakir also acknowledges the financial support from French Agence Nationale de la Recherche through the ModULand project (ANR–11–BSH1–005). The authors also acknowledge volunteer ornithologists, French Ministry of Agriculture (Service de la Statistique et de la Prospective), IGN, INRA InfoSol, and Météo France for the production of data that allow such work. We are grateful to Laurent Terray, Christian Pagé and Julian Boé for the regional climate scenarios, Vincent Badeau for the development of the 8km soil data set and Christophe Fran\c{c}ois for his assistance in the use of climate and soils data sets. ## 5 Additional Material ### 5.1 Geographic files The compressed geographical shapefiles are available here. library(sp) ; library(rgdal) MAP <- readOGR("./Data", "GrMaille", verbose= FALSE) CRD <- data.frame(MAP, coordinates(MAP)) F2C <- readOGR("./Data", "F2C" , verbose= FALSE) FD.CRT <- list("sp.polygons", F2C, lwd= 10)  ### 5.2 Linear Approx. LinApprox <- function(pdat, nc= 2: 52){ prd <- matrix(0, ncol= length(nc)) for (i in unique(pdat$MAILLE)){
yop <- approx(pdat$time[pdat$MAILLE== i],
pdat$value[pdat$MAILLE== i], n= length(nc))$y prd <- rbind(prd, yop) } DAT <<- data.frame(unique(pdat$MAILLE), prd[-1, ], row.names= NULL)
names(DAT) <<- c("MAILLE", paste("N", 2003: 2053, sep= ""))
DAT[, nc]  <<- (DAT[, nc]- DAT[, 2])* 100
}


### 5.3 Animations

library(RColorBrewer) ; library(classInt) ; library(animation)
AnimHTML <- function(SPDF, ttle, brks, pal, t1, t2, dir, name){
IC <- classIntervals(-100: 100, n= length(brks)+ 1,
style= "fixed", fixedBreaks= brks)
CR <- attr(findColours(IC, brewer.pal(5, pal)), "palette")
saveHTML({
oopt <- ani.options(interval= 0.15, nmax= 100, title= ttle)
opar <- par(mar= c(3, 3, 1, 0.5), mgp= c(2, .5, 0),
tcl= -0.3, cex.axis= 1.5, cex.lab= 1.5, cex.main= 2)
for(i in 2: 52){
dev.hold()
mp <- spplot(SPDF[, i], cuts= IC$brks, col.regions= CR, cex= 1, pch= 15, colorkey= T, sp.layout= FD.CRT, main= paste(t1, substr(names(SPDF)[ i], 2, 5), t2, sep= ""), par.settings= list(panel.background= list(col="grey"))) mp$legend$right$args$key$at <- IC\$brks ; print(mp)
ani.pause()
}
}, autoplay= FALSE, loop= FALSE, verbose= FALSE, outdir = dir,
htmlfile = name, autobrowse= FALSE, single.opts=
"'controls': ['first', 'previous',
'play', 'next', 'last', 'loop', 'speed'], 'delayMin': 0")
}